Effect of external debt and inflation on economic growth in Kenya

Abstract

The state of economic growth in Kenya has been fluctuating over time as a result of various factors. This study was carried out using external debt and inflation rates as some of the variables which can impact economic growth. The purpose of this research was to investigate the effect of external public debt and inflation in Kenya. It also aimed at identifying other factors that can affect economic growth in Kenya. The specific objectives for the research were to determine the effect of external public debt level on economic growth in Kenya, analyze the effect of inflation on economic growth in Kenya and to establish whether external public debt level and inflation cause economic growth in Kenya. The methodology used during the research included secondary data from International Monetary Fund (IMF), International Financial Statistics (IFS) and Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) data. The study used econometric models in establishing the relationship among the variables. Johansen Cointegration test, Granger causality test and Vector Error Correction model were used using STATA statistical software. The research found that external debt and inflation had no impact on GDP and that there exists a co integrating relationship among these variables hence they are moving together in long run. The test for granger causality indicated that there was no causal linkage among the variables.